November 7, 2008
Dear Friends and Supporters:
I want to thank each and every one of you for your support. The campaign to Restore Integrity in the Missouri Seventh Congressional District fell woefully short, as you know, so it is appropriate for me to share some thoughts now that there has been a little time for perspective on our election results. I would appreciate your thoughts as well.
Gross Vote. First, the good news. This will be brief. There were far more votes for the Democratic candidate for U.S. Representative this year than in any past election featuring the present configuration of the Missouri Seventh Congressional District (90,761).
Anticipations. Prior to the November 4th voting, we had reasonably, I thought, anticipated a 10 to 15 point better performance than the 28.1 percent of the actual vote that I received. This forecast was based on a Democratic Party assessment of 42% to 43% Democratic Party preference among voters, polling that showed a 10% defection of Republicans from Blunt, an increased number of enthusiastic Democratic voters matched with a depressed number of demoralized Republican voters, and a 10% draw for the third parties away from the Republican vote in the Congressional race. It was also anticipated that the absence of straight ticket voting would assist in the Republican defections. Blunt’s last weeks of unanswered media “carpet bombing” may have obviated these optimistic assumptions, even if they had been valid prior to the closing month.
No Republican Realignment. Going into the election, we were anticipating about 10% defection from Blunt among the Republican voters. We based this largely on our SurveyUSA poll results. We were supported in this view by Governor-elect Nixon’s pre-election polling, and the perception of unpopularity of Blunt for various reasons (fiscal excess, earmarks, corruption, leadership in Congress for Bush programs). In any event, it appears that Governor-elect Nixon did benefit from an approximately 10% Republican defection. Obviously, the votes of the 10% Republican defection were there to be won, as Nixon and Carnahan showed, but I failed to win them. Also, the perceived revulsion at Blunt did not materialize in a third party protest vote to any great extent.
Democratic Defection. This one hurts. It is clear from the election returns that a significant number of Democrats who voted for Obama-Biden, Nixon, Carnahan, and others, voted for Blunt rather that Monroe. Some undervote was anticipated as voters went down the ballot, of course, but this Democratic defection stands as a stunning failure. How could I have not benefited at all from the coattails of the state-wide candidates?
Funding. Monroe for Congress was a pauper’s campaign. The difficulty in raising money was a genuine eye-opener. I thought, in the absence of enough cash, that there was sufficient revulsion against Blunt and Bush to make this a true year of realignment. As we know, there was no general realignment this year. I attempted to make up the lack of financial resources by retail campaigning. As I said, I would go anywhere there were “three people around a chili bowl”, and I did so for months. It is now clear, as we feared from the Spring, that this retail campaigning was not sufficient because a great deal of voter education, and, in my case, name recognition, were required. This meant television, radio and targeted mailings were necessary. Comparative analysis of results for McCaskill in the 2004 and 2006 elections show that each persuadable vote in the Seventh District added in 2006 for McCaskill was gained at the expenditure of about $5.00.
2010. My initial calculations indicated that a Democratic victory in the Missouri Seventh Congressional District required the defection of roughly 40,000 Republican votes as an initial condition. Obviously, this prerequisite for victory was not achieved. As a thought experiment, assume that in 2010 the Republican Seventh District vote would, in the absence of a funded Democratic campaign, be about 160,000 and, also, optimistically assume that a 2010 unfunded Democratic Seventh District campaign would draw about an 85,000 vote. To persuade one-half of the difference, or 37,500 votes at the $5.00 per vote, would require an additional war chest of $187,500 for media. In other words, the 2010 Congressional candidate should have at least $200,000 on hand in February 2010 to hope to break even. A candidate with less than $200,000 on hand at filing would be foolhardy. Even my optimism does not foresee realignment in the mid-year election in 2010. A district realignment will take work starting now.
Long Range Planning. Democratic victory in the Missouri Seventh Congressional District is possible, but it will require continuous voter education in order to change the “default-to-Republican” culture and will require our continued recruitment of superior candidates – as well as adequate funding. Candidate recruitment will be difficult. With one exception (Wayne Hendrix), no Democrat who was not an incumbent (Lampe, Norr) or a former incumbent (Evenson) prevailed down ballot in the Missouri Seventh. Why did the statewide virtual tie for Obama-Biden, and the victories for Nixon, Carnahan, and Zweifel not, dare I write it, “trickle down”? In race after race, to name a few examples, the Democratic candidate clearly was the objectively superior choice (Hagan, Dake, Shawgo, Huy, Brumback, Ramon, Beatty, Lee, Snook, Stokely, Hilliard, and – break my heart – Fabro). These losses are catastrophic.
As for me, the Monroe for Congress Committee ends the cycle about $60,000 in debt. This will be settled with donations in the new cycle or with personal future earnings. If you are interested in me as a candidate for Congress in 2010, the Monroe for Congress campaign needs 500 donors committing $25.00 per month for the next 24 months. Please let me know your thoughts by return mail or by initiating a monthly donation on ActBlue through my soon-to-be- revised website.
It has been an honor to be your candidate. Still, however, my embarrassment at our representation in Congress by Roy Blunt persists. Let’s change that representation either with me or some other viable candidate you may choose.
Again, my thanks to you. I look forward to hearing from you and seeing many of you at Riverside, December 13, 2008, for the Christian County Democrats’ Christmas Party, the first event of the new election cycle.
Sincerely,
Richard Monroe
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